NCF Renewal forecast for 2001
Probability of Renewing Versus Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
199910										From renewal and registration data
199911	28%	39%	51%
199912	51%	69%	64%	69%	67%	70%	70%			There are some 'edge effects' due to renewals in progress
200001	40%	66%	64%	66%	68%	65%	71%
200002	43%	71%	66%	60%	66%	72%	78%
200003	39%	58%	60%	63%	60%	72%	71%
200004	28%	58%	68%	58%	61%	69%	70%
200005	27%	55%	60%	53%	58%	63%	69%
200006	21%	49%	47%	56%	55%	64%	70%
200007	17%	33%	49%
200008	13%	53%	42%
200009	9%	37%	35%
p(Renew)	29%	53%	55%	61%	62%	68%	71%			Best estimate of probability of renewal, based on years at NCF
Number of Members Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Sum		Adjustments to account for renewals in progress
199910	105	74	32	39	0	1	4	255
199911	260	64	42	51	8	5	6	436
199912	114	96	37	43	81	134	190	695
200001	156	99	66	66	159	141	231	918
200002	164	120	59	49	107	132	211	842
200003	186	98	50	39	83	150	311	917
200004	114	56	44	50	64	164	334	826
200005	112	40	41	34	44	104	253	628
200006	125	31	38	22	44	23	82	365
200007	113	48	25	46	39	0	0	271
200008	135	30	42	39	41	0	0	287
200009	160	57	46	43	49	0	0	355		100	40	20	20	25
Sum	1744	813	522	521	719	854	1622	6795
Renewal Forecast Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Sum
199910		30	40	18	24	0	1	3	115		Predicted 'survivors' of next renewal cycle
199911		75	34	23	31	5	3	4	176
199912		33	51	20	26	50	91	135	407		Column 1 is where new members would appear
200001		45	53	36	40	99	96	164	533
200002		47	64	33	30	67	90	150	480
200003		54	52	28	24	52	102	221	531
200004		33	30	24	30	40	111	237	506
200005		32	21	23	21	27	71	180	374
200006		36	17	21	13	27	16	58	188
200007		33	26	14	28	24	0	0	124
200008		39	16	23	24	26	0	0	127
200009		46	30	25	26	31	0	0	159
Sum		502	434	288	317	448	580	1151	3720
		14%	12%	8%	9%	12%	16%	31%	100%
Ave donation		$32.89	$30.76	$32.83	$35.74	$40.16	$40.16	$40.16			Data to the right is from the table below.  The ranges are from 1998, applied to this year's data.
p(donation)		72%	72%	72%	72%	72%	72%	72%
0											Average annual donation by ID range				1998 data
Donations Versus Renewal Date, by Years at NCF											(total & ave donations from lots of 500)
YearMon	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Sum		1	aa001	$15,850	$31.70
199910		$716	$875	$417	$611	$0	$20	$82	$2,721		4151	ae151	$14,116	$28.23
199911		$1,774	$757	$548	$798	$144	$98	$123	$4,243		9091	aj091	$13,880	$27.76
199912		$778	$1,136	$483	$673	$1,458	$2,631	$3,898	$11,057		15221	ap221	$13,411	$26.82
200001		$1,064	$1,171	$861	$1,033	$2,863	$2,769	$4,739	$14,500		21224	av224	$13,141	$26.28
200002		$1,119	$1,419	$770	$767	$1,926	$2,592	$4,329	$12,922		30575	be575	$12,764	$25.53
200003		$1,269	$1,159	$652	$611	$1,494	$2,945	$6,380	$14,511		42125	bq125	$12,711	$25.42
200004		$778	$662	$574	$783	$1,152	$3,220	$6,852	$14,021		55885	cd885	$12,379	$24.76
200005		$764	$473	$535	$532	$792	$2,042	$5,190	$10,329		68001	cq001	$11,518	$23.04
200006		$853	$367	$496	$344	$792	$452	$1,682	$4,986		78681	da681	$11,905	$23.81
200007		$771	$568	$326	$720	$702	$0	$0	$3,087		86952	di952	$10,489	$20.98
200008		$921	$355	$548	$611	$738	$0	$0	$3,173		93844	dp844	$12,400	$24.80
200009		$1,092	$674	$600	$673	$882	$0	$0	$3,921		99621	dv621	$10,963	$21.93
									$99,471		103058	dz058	$11,731	$23.46
											105577	eb577	$12,786	$25.57
Renewals by Month			Min Contrib	$48.00	Min contribtuion							7500 donors
YearMon	Donations	People	Model	95%	Probability of donation (versus volunteering)							72%	= p(donation) from Aug2000 ED report
200010	$3,621	148	$6,732										1998 data
200011	$3,102	130	$5,928
200012	$5,946	234	$10,656											$25.34	Average of above
200101	$11,917	438	$19,995											$34.81	Ave from Aug2000 ED report
200102	$14,105	520	$23,700		There is a lag time of about 3 weeks (from notice to receiving donation)									1.37	Scaling factor
200103	$13,319	493	$22,465		The values to the left have been shifted to account for the lag time
200104	$14,389	525	$23,942
200105	$13,098	473	$21,564		(the time lag might be longer than 3 weeks; I didn't check this)
200106	$8,993	328	$14,953
200107	$4,511	172	$7,851
200108	$3,109	125	$5,702		Green	Likely donations under 'please donate $48' model
200109	$3,360	135	$6,164		Yellow	Likely donations under 'minimum contribution' model
	$99,471	3,720	$169,651
Does not include revenue from NEW registrations